2016 Rio Olympics

Using the 2015-2016 scores of the gymnasts on each Olympic team, this model simulates the competition 20,000 times to calculate each team's probability of advancing to the team final, reaching the team final podium, and winning the team final gold.

Methodology.

Last updated August 08, 2016

Event Tenths Above Average (TAA) Chances of...
Team Team TAA VT UB BB FX TF Qualification TF Podium TF Gold
USA +13.88 +2.55 +3.99 +3.25 +4.10 100% 94.4% 93.9%
CHN +9.63 +1.39 +3.90 +2.32 +2.02 100% 80.9% 3.9%
RUS +7.26 +1.43 +4.10 +1.46 +0.27 100% 36.9% 0.7%
JPN +4.86 +1.18 +1.77 +0.23 +1.68 100% 11.3% 0.2%
GBR +4.08 +0.87 +1.62 +0.26 +1.33 100% 35.8% 0.8%
ITA +2.95 +0.54 +0.19 +0.67 +1.55 0% 0% 0%
CAN +2.88 +0.83 +0.91 +0.67 +0.47 0% 0% 0%
BRA +2.79 +0.86 +0.30 +0.89 +0.75 100% 18.1% 0.3%
GER +2.12 -0.80 +2.82 +0.48 -0.39 100% 15.7% 0.2%
NED +0.88 -0.96 +0.16 +1.65 +0.03 100% 6.9% 0.1%
FRA +0.16 -1.07 +1.14 +0.32 -0.22 0% 0% 0%
BEL -2.14 -2.12 +0.89 -0.21 -0.70 0% 0% 0%

United States

Team TAA VT UB BB FX
+13.88 +2.55 +3.99 +3.25 +4.10
Vault Uneven Bars Balance Beam Floor Exercise
Gymnast High Average TAA High Average TAA High Average TAA High Average TAA
Simone Biles 16.200 15.989 +1.41 15.100 14.957 +0.98 15.700 15.305 +1.48 16.100 15.876 +1.95
Madison Kocian 14.000 13.863 -0.27 15.933 15.759 +1.66 15.550 14.400 +0.76 14.700 14.513 +0.53
Gabrielle Douglas 15.300 15.052 +0.48 15.766 15.219 +1.36 15.050 14.519 +0.65 14.833 14.587 +0.77
Alexandra Raisman 15.833 15.338 +0.83 14.733 14.183 +0.30 15.350 15.000 +1.00 15.700 15.325 +1.45
Laurie Hernandez 15.200 15.022 +0.33 15.400 14.871 +0.95 15.700 15.353 +1.28 15.300 14.817 +0.99

China

Team TAA VT UB BB FX
+9.63 +1.39 +3.90 +2.32 +2.02
Vault Uneven Bars Balance Beam Floor Exercise
Gymnast High Average TAA High Average TAA High Average TAA High Average TAA
Shang Chunsong 14.050 13.625 -0.86 15.600 15.205 +1.27 15.500 15.105 +1.07 15.150 14.750 +0.76
Wang Yan 15.350 14.953 +0.44 13.900 13.796 -0.17 14.666 14.050 +0.40 15.050 14.669 +0.72
Fan Yilin 15.834 15.408 +1.48 15.300 14.740 +0.81 13.500 13.500 -0.40
Mao Yi 15.400 15.100 +0.31 13.850 13.450 -0.26 14.450 14.175 +0.04 15.250 13.843 +0.44
Tan Jiaxin 15.350 14.961 +0.43 15.400 14.960 +1.02 14.150 13.959 -0.14

Russia

Team TAA VT UB BB FX
+7.26 +1.43 +4.10 +1.46 +0.27
Vault Uneven Bars Balance Beam Floor Exercise
Gymnast High Average TAA High Average TAA High Average TAA High Average TAA
Aliya Mustafina 15.200 15.040 +0.39 15.933 15.051 +1.45 15.100 14.477 +0.64 14.300 13.846 +0.30
Maria Paseka 15.700 14.670 +0.65 14.600 13.925 +1.01
Angelina Melnikova 15.050 14.765 +0.25 15.167 14.973 +1.11 15.400 14.355 +0.38 15.200 14.112 +0.07
Seda Tutkhalyan 14.966 14.629 +0.29 15.133 14.367 +0.66 15.333 14.312 +0.31 15.000 13.544 -0.23
Daria Spiridonova 13.833 13.817 -0.68 15.683 15.076 +1.49 14.266 13.751 -0.29 13.533 12.578 -1.17

Great Britain

Team TAA VT UB BB FX
+4.08 +0.87 +1.62 +0.26 +1.33
Vault Uneven Bars Balance Beam Floor Exercise
Gymnast High Average TAA High Average TAA High Average TAA High Average TAA
Ellie Downie 15.133 14.959 +0.35 14.675 14.012 +0.16 14.950 13.849 +0.23 14.566 13.987 +0.22
Becky Downie 15.500 14.724 +1.04 14.800 13.913 -0.01
Claudia Fragapane 14.933 14.687 +0.10 14.050 13.037 -0.49 14.750 13.963 -0.06 15.000 14.491 +0.67
Amy Tinkler 15.050 14.917 +0.26 13.833 13.492 -0.26 14.500 13.690 -0.19 14.933 14.239 +0.36
Ruby Harrold 14.800 14.469 -0.08 14.833 13.813 +0.37 13.800 13.308 -0.70 14.200 13.690 -0.25

Brazil

Team TAA VT UB BB FX
+2.79 +0.86 +0.30 +0.89 +0.75
Vault Uneven Bars Balance Beam Floor Exercise
Gymnast High Average TAA High Average TAA High Average TAA High Average TAA
Flávia Saraiva 15.050 14.739 -0.05 14.400 13.573 -0.14 15.150 14.834 +0.70 14.500 14.128 +0.34
Rebeca Andrade 15.566 15.161 +0.57 14.933 14.362 +0.46 14.200 13.728 -0.23 14.100 13.753 +0.38
Lorrane Oliveira 14.866 14.621 +0.22 14.250 13.661 -0.13 14.200 13.354 -0.32 13.400 12.579 -0.36
Daniele Hypolito 14.350 13.896 -0.55 13.800 13.650 -0.69 14.450 13.783 +0.00 13.950 13.286 -0.19
Jade Barbosa 14.966 14.590 -0.02 14.450 13.791 -0.19 14.233 13.383 +0.05 14.266 12.578 -0.43

Italy

Team TAA VT UB BB FX
+2.95 +0.54 +0.19 +0.67 +1.55
Vault Uneven Bars Balance Beam Floor Exercise
Gymnast High Average TAA High Average TAA High Average TAA High Average TAA
Carlotta Ferlito 14.733 14.389 -0.23 14.100 13.500 -0.50 14.650 13.828 +0.49 14.650 14.212 +0.15
Erika Fasana 14.500 14.000 +0.02 13.850 13.392 -0.36 14.750 14.493 +0.64
Vanessa Ferrari 15.000 14.704 +0.07 14.400 13.750 -0.15 15.050 13.436 +0.20 14.900 14.335 +0.55
Elisa Meneghini 14.650 14.198 -0.22 14.050 13.274 -0.58 14.500 13.596 -0.14 14.750 14.105 +0.25
Martina Rizzelli 14.800 14.581 +0.14 14.750 14.058 +0.19 14.050 14.050 -0.06

Japan

Team TAA VT UB BB FX
+4.86 +1.18 +1.77 +0.23 +1.68
Vault Uneven Bars Balance Beam Floor Exercise
Gymnast High Average TAA High Average TAA High Average TAA High Average TAA
Mai Murakami 15.100 14.869 +0.31 14.166 13.493 -0.21 13.900 13.093 -0.25 15.100 14.563 +0.64
Yuki Uchiyama 14.300 14.150 -0.59 15.000 13.908 +0.67 13.733 12.971 -0.29 13.700 13.400 -0.08
Asuka Teramoto 15.300 14.794 +0.20 14.900 14.346 +0.54 14.466 13.989 +0.40 14.050 13.644 +0.01
Sae Miyakawa 15.550 14.885 +0.54 13.275 12.856 -0.64 12.050 11.708 -1.31 14.750 13.507 +0.52
Aiko Sugihara 14.500 14.400 -0.25 14.600 14.233 +0.49 14.300 13.272 +0.04 14.300 14.097 +0.39

Netherlands

Team TAA VT UB BB FX
+0.88 -0.96 +0.16 +1.65 +0.03
Vault Uneven Bars Balance Beam Floor Exercise
Gymnast High Average TAA High Average TAA High Average TAA High Average TAA
Eythora Thorsdottir 15.150 14.669 +0.01 14.733 14.176 +0.07 14.566 13.600 +0.29 14.533 13.791 +0.11
Lieke Wevers 14.150 14.036 -0.77 14.600 13.983 -0.04 14.950 14.117 +0.36 14.150 13.853 -0.00
Sanne Wevers 14.533 13.375 +0.00 15.650 15.007 +0.91
Vera van Pol 14.500 14.231 -0.50 14.050 12.883 -0.74 13.300 12.597 -1.18 13.500 13.176 -0.55
Celine van Gerner 14.000 13.908 -0.58 14.533 14.067 +0.11 14.300 13.683 -0.24 14.250 13.883 -0.03

Canada

Team TAA VT UB BB FX
+2.88 +0.83 +0.91 +0.67 +0.47
Vault Uneven Bars Balance Beam Floor Exercise
Gymnast High Average TAA High Average TAA High Average TAA High Average TAA
Ellie Black 15.100 14.573 +0.10 14.575 13.965 +0.15 14.700 14.145 +0.42 14.366 14.127 +0.27
Isabela Onyshko 14.800 12.643 -0.59 14.750 14.316 +0.33 15.100 14.368 +0.23 14.400 13.992 +0.10
Brittany Rogers 15.067 14.843 +0.19 14.800 14.263 +0.30 14.200 13.633 -0.74 13.125 12.992 -1.04
Rose-Kaying Woo 14.334 14.080 -0.10 14.075 13.569 -0.30 14.350 13.581 -0.09 13.625 13.150 -0.10
Shallon Olsen 15.300 14.924 +0.38 13.600 12.647 -1.00 13.550 12.800 -1.08 14.400 13.742 -0.01

Germany

Team TAA VT UB BB FX
+2.12 -0.80 +2.82 +0.48 -0.39
Vault Uneven Bars Balance Beam Floor Exercise
Gymnast High Average TAA High Average TAA High Average TAA High Average TAA
Sophie Scheder 14.200 13.996 -0.64 15.566 15.128 +1.00 14.700 13.745 -0.09 13.833 13.201 -0.66
Elisabeth Seitz 14.200 14.026 -0.64 15.566 15.204 +1.13 14.366 13.730 -0.50 13.833 13.580 -0.49
Pauline Schaefer 14.650 14.479 -0.22 13.900 13.563 -0.57 15.133 14.395 +0.20 14.450 14.009 +0.07
Tabea Alt 14.833 14.502 -0.13 14.666 14.346 +0.36 15.200 14.231 +0.27 13.666 12.946 -0.70
Kim Bui 14.033 13.950 -0.59 15.033 14.748 +0.64 14.150 13.424 -0.67 14.200 13.774 +0.02

France

Team TAA VT UB BB FX
+0.16 -1.07 +1.14 +0.32 -0.22
Vault Uneven Bars Balance Beam Floor Exercise
Gymnast High Average TAA High Average TAA High Average TAA High Average TAA
Marine Brevet 14.241 14.126 -0.49 14.333 13.573 -0.13 14.400 13.997 +0.14 14.500 13.810 +0.15
Louise Vanhille 14.250 14.033 -0.66 14.900 14.397 +0.44 14.100 13.365 -0.47 14.100 13.655 -0.22
Marine Boyer 14.733 14.400 -0.23 14.050 13.286 -0.36 15.000 14.433 +0.52 13.900 13.408 -0.38
Loan His 14.250 14.072 -0.52 15.100 14.474 +0.50 13.800 13.363 -0.70 13.466 12.533 -0.27
Oréane Lechenault 14.250 13.594 -0.83 14.950 13.995 +0.05 14.200 12.854 -0.58 14.200 13.230 -0.33

Belgium

Team TAA VT UB BB FX
-2.14 -2.12 +0.89 -0.21 -0.70
Vault Uneven Bars Balance Beam Floor Exercise
Gymnast High Average TAA High Average TAA High Average TAA High Average TAA
Nina Derwael 13.966 13.829 -0.70 15.300 14.180 +0.71 14.450 13.849 -0.02 13.733 13.373 -0.25
Rune Hermans 13.850 13.638 -0.87 13.900 13.772 -0.31 13.900 13.492 -0.42 13.900 13.453 -0.28
Gaelle Mys 14.167 13.997 -0.71 13.567 13.314 -0.93 14.200 13.926 -0.14 13.825 13.681 -0.28
Laura Waem 13.800 13.800 -0.98 14.550 13.850 +0.03 14.300 13.536 -0.20 13.400 13.278 -0.65
Senna Deriks 14.200 13.775 -0.92 14.600 14.058 +0.14 13.850 12.815 -0.75 13.200 13.100 -0.71